Job in Demand for Next year, Just over a year ago in march of 2020 unemployment in the u.s spiked to 15 percent as the fallout of the coronavirus forced many businesses to close and many more to take drastic cost-cutting measures to survive the turbulent times that lay ahead.
Today thanks in part to government stimulus and a new acceptance of the status quo in the workplace this figure has fallen to six percent, which is still far higher than the 3.5 percent was hovering around before the economy shut down but it is obviously a massive improvement.
in fact today the USA is facing a completely different somewhat paradoxical problem, people are no longer struggling to find places to work… workplaces are struggling to find people reports of massive labor shortages have compelled some of the nation's largest employers to offer potential recruits $50 just to show up for a job interview.
in Australia uber is offering people a $500 bonus just to sign up as a driver and do 20 deliveries, what's more is that those same companies are having to offer higher salaries and career progression opportunities beyond the minimum wage they have typically paid to entry level employees, so this sounds like a good thing unemployment falling, wages, rising, conditions improving, what's not to like unless maybe you're a fast food franchise owner.
However these seemingly positive headlines have actually got a few economists pretty worried to understand why we need to as always look at a few things in detail and properly understand what this could all mean to the recovery of the american economy as a whole.
So why are economists concerned about people having their choice of jobs with better pay and conditions, what could this situation do to the wider economy and what is the best way to take advantage of this apparent surge in demand for new employees. This episode of economics explained is brought to you by skillshare thanks to skillshare you can learn valuable skills that will make you a marketable asset no matter what the world is doing.
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so you have probably heard the phrase full employment it gets thrown around a lot by politicians economists and it's even one of the central goals of the federal reserve bank, but the actual phrase itself full employment is a bit misleading you would be forgiven for thinking that this means zero unemployment, but it doesn't for starters that's never actually been achieved because in an economy as large as the US there is always going to be someone out of work.
What does it actually mean well economists kind of disagree on this, they all agree it is a low rate of unemployment but it will never be zero the first approximation of this is based on what is called the natural rate of unemployment, what this means is that the only people who are willing and able to work but are not currently working are either temporarily between jobs like let's say an executive taking a week off before starting a new role at a new company, or are training up to work in a different role.
Let's say a blacksmith learning to write code so they can go and work at google yeah okay extreme example but you get the point…..
This is known as frictional and structural unemployment respectively these are normally seen as the good type of unemployment or at least the type of unemployment that isn't terrible like the alternatives.
Cyclical unemployment is the one that we are normally afraid of this is unemployment caused by changes in the business cycle if an economy goes into a recession there is naturally less demand which means fewer employees are needed to meet that lower level of demand people are laid off and lose their income, so they can't afford to purchase as much which in turn reduces demand and the cruel cycle of cyclical unemployment continues.
You must quickly add before anyone corrects me in the comments section that cyclical unemployment is so core because it is caused by the short-term business cycle not because it compounds on itself like demonstrated here, that's just a nice little piece of irony that i like to point out….. Anyway this is why to try and avoid this the central bank is tasked with among other things maintaining full employment but that role can sometimes spirit odds with another responsibility of the fed which is maintaining low inflation.
There is another idea of what full employment is and it has to do with a term that you may have heard thrown around in the news recently, the NAIRU which is just an acronym for the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment this is the reason that economists don't want zero unemployment.
First analyzed by william phillips he found that there was a relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation notably higher levels of employment higher levels of inflation but it's not a linear relationship, sure as employment levels rise so too does inflation but it only really starts to become a problem when it passes this arbitrary point.
the NAIRU now this graph may look daunting but the actual fundamentals of this theory couldn't be more simple it's supply and demand, imagine a world with 10 unemployment it shouldn't be that difficult it was literally the world a year ago if you are the unlucky one out of every 10 that finds themselves involuntarily out of work, then you are in trouble.
Any job opening is going to have a lot of potential applicants and a lot of applicants that will be willing to work for rock bottom wages just so they can get a job at all, it's worth mentioning that this also really sucks for the frictionally and structurally unemployed as well, because they might be training up for or transitioning into jobs that don't exist anymore.
Ultimately the labor market is a market like any other and more people looking for fewer jobs means that there is more supply less demand and ultimately lower wages, now the opposite is also true but to a more extreme degree, say your unemployment drops below this NAIRU level then we will have a situation where almost everybody that wants a job, has a job, if you are an employer and you post a job opening you might find that literally nobody applies.
So maybe you have to offer a slightly higher salary or poach people from other workplaces with attractive signing bonuses or you know maybe even pay people fifty dollars just to show up for a job interview, now a little bit of this is great…..
it gives the working pool of labor a bit more negotiating power it means that people don't need to work 80 hours a week in a coal mine or deal with environments that will obviously impact their long-term health, but too much can cause a problem there is certainly a good argument for a higher minimum wage, but what happens if restaurants need to turn around and start paying all of their employees 15 20 40 100 an hour ?
Just to attract enough staff to make sure the operation runs, eventually the salary expenses of these businesses would just make it infeasible for them to keep on running, which means they will close down which reduces the supply of tasty burgers in circulation which means that the burger places that are left in operation will get to charge a premium for their products been sold in the burger market that they have now cornered.
Of course this is an extreme example but even gradual increases in income can lead to gradual increases in the price level of goods and services, if a company needs to pay a plumber $30 an hour to get them to show up to work they're going to be passing that cost along to you and on the other side of that equation if that plumber is looking for a brand new truck to celebrate his pay rise.
He's going to be competing against every other plumber that just got a pay rise and wants to buy themselves a brand new truck, now i know what you might be thinking oh mr economics man just wants to complain about inflation again, didn't you make An Articles on this last month and well while that is half true there is more to this whole problem than just inflation alone.
Beyond that this is ignoring the glaring elephant in the room which is that unemployment is still almost twice of what it was before the pandemic, if this wasn't a problem back then why is it a problem now the short answer is that the NAIRU has shifted but that only makes sense when you address the bigger picture you are never going to see a politician campaign on a platform of increasing unemployment and offering less jobs to less americans for a few reasons.
Obviously it would be incredibly unpopular with 99% of the people who either don't know what NAIRU is or think at the very least it's a tiny micro nation in the south pacific, but beyond that increasing unemployment is very easy….
it's as simple as cancelling a few government projects the challenge is more so in keeping unemployment as low as possible without racking up too much debt or inflation, the government tries very hard to get this figure as low as possible because it is politically popular this is either done directly through employing people in government roles as government contractors or indirectly by generally running an expansionary fiscal budget.
Where not a lot of money is tax but a lot of money is given away the problem with this second option is that it can create a whole new category of unemployment that doesn't get nearly as much attention as these other ones, institutional unemployment :
This is unemployment that is caused by institutional policies that impact the labor market this can be anything from a mine getting shut down because the workers threatened to unionize to companies refusing to hire workers of a particular race or gender, but more commonly it has to do with government intervention in markets…. There is an argument being made by a broad group of economists today that the measures taken to protect people from the direct economic repercussions of the coronavirus were too generous.
Unemployment insurance combined with supplements of up to three hundred dollars per week compounded by multiple stimulus checks have meant that people are making more money by not working, than they would be making in the industries which are hurting, when it's also considered that going to work also includes hidden costs like paying for transport to and from the workplace child care eating out more because you don't have time to cook at home then this decision makes logical fiscal sense.
What's more is that there is still a global pandemic going on given the choice between staying home or working in food services where you'll come into contact with hundreds of people in a given day, i think i would know which choice i would take, i know this is anecdotal but i would like to think i'm the type of guy that values a solid day's work and normally given this decision i would choose to earn my own money rather than take assistance.
Even if the earning potential was the same but given the context of the world that we live in right now you would need to pay me a pretty healthy premium for taking that risk, now this entire process effectively means that the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment that we were studying earlier can shift, and indeed it shifts all the time….
Following the recession in 2008 this race spiked up by one percent to just under six percent, of course that never really became a problem because unemployment at this time was hovering over eight percent, but today we are in a potentially worse economic situation than we were back then given that there are real material constraints on the economy.
There are not enough computer chips not enough lumbar not enough cars and not enough of basically everything we use to run an economy, which is kind of to be expected let's not ignore the fact that we are still in a crisis right now, it surely makes sense that unemployment should be higher and the relentless obsession by governments to drive this figure to be as low as possible.
is driving it beyond where it actually should be in a properly functioning economy which is giving us all of the weirdness that we are seeing in the world right now, economists support this theory primarily those that subscribe to the austrian school of economics we'll also point out that these distortions will cause knock-on impacts in the economy, that will end up doing more harm than good.
If that plumber from earlier who is currently earning thirty dollars an hour has to go back to working for $20 an hour he might default on the payments for that new ford f-150 he overpaid for, which causes more issues than these temporarily higher wages solved.
a Rough analogy would be that covert hit the global economy like an unexpected breakup, now there are two ways to deal with a breakup…. You can realize that this is gonna suck for a while take some steps to try and make yourself feel better and get over it or you could go on a bender which will almost totally eliminate the pain and suffering in the short term but inevitably make things much worse in the long term.
it must be noted that not all economists agree with this rather pessimistic view some argue that this is simply a systematic issue that will sort itself out over time, this also does make sense when you look at the figures as we saw at the height of the pandemic millions of people were laid off in a very short period of time.
in the months since then most people have had to find alternatives to support themselves this could be anything from going back to school to retrain to living off government welfare to simply just getting a new job, life finds a way so to speak fast forward to today and those same businesses are reopening and looking to fill out their staff base all over again only to find that all the people they'd let go had found these other arrangements.
Job openings right now are at the highest point in history and sure some of the people that were laid off will either be happy or be forced to come back to work, but some will end up sticking with the alternatives that they have found during the lockdown over time this will even itself back out new people will join the workforce and eventually there won't be as many businesses that need to hire staff to reopen.
Everybody lives happily ever after so to speak, but what can you do to capitalize on all of this well now is the perfect time to start shopping around for a new job with a better salary, for the first time in a long time it is the employers fighting over the employees rather than the other way around. Studies suggest that employees who stay with their companies for longer than two years get paid 50 percent less on average than their peers who are more happy to job hop for a promotion.
a pay rise or just better conditions getting the best value for your hard work is always good advice, but maybe never more so than right now…. of course this process is made even easier by being able to leverage an ever-expanding set of valuable and marketable skills, like the ones that you can learn with skillshare.
Every applicant we went through just didn't have the skills that we were looking for but obviously we did end up finding someone who learned everything that they know online with skillshare, this is a good job that can be done from anywhere in the world and it goes to show the power of having an in-demand skill that is taught by an engaging teacher who truly knows their craft and uses it themselves in the real world.
THE HABITS OF SUPER ACHIEVERS Motivation & Inspiration for Works, for increase of Big potential on yourself
Time is precious……….
Life is not just the passing of time………..
Life is not just the passing of time…………
Life is a collection of experiences………….
Their frequency and their intensity, life is not just watching the clock tick away, life is a collection of experiences their intensity their frequency when my friend mark died at age 44 someone says that's young to die but what if he lived four lifetimes in one it might not be too young.
Whatever the span of your life turns out to be here's what you want to fill it up with experiences and the intensity of those experiences, but now let's talk about the management of time :
Here's the first one ignore the subject i mean that's good advice don't let anything overly bug you, because you remember now you don't have to do anything so i got to get a handle on my time the answer is no you don't if you want to let it all go you can let it all go.
I mean this is good advice somebody says you ought you what you ought jot this down ignore all the you oughts or you should only if they're giving general information we should it's better to say if you're teaching we should, not you should we should then you let me listen in without it being too confrontational, if everyone did this see that would be great and then you give a person a chance to choose to do it or not to do it, but when you start the you ought you ought now see if i don't now see we got some tension and maybe some problems.
So you oughts seem to always create problems because this is personal dignity and you don't want to destroy someone's dignity by doing all the odds and they feel reluctant to do it now we've got problems, so if you want to just ignore this subject on time management now.
Here's the next one step down to something easier the guy's in sales and he says oh i want to own the company finally owns the company now he's got no time to play golf he said when i was in sales i was making big money playing golf three days a week, heck with disowning something, heck with managing my life was never my own after i started to manage.
i'm going back to sales see this is the key if you're getting too pressed you might consider stepping down to something with a little easier time pressure little girl says to her mother daddy comes home brings his briefcase and pats me on the head and says hello disappears and works on these papers.
How come my daddy doesn't play with ? me and her mother said look your daddy loves you very much but he's so busy at work he can't get it all done he has to bring it home he loves you but that's why he can't play with you, and the little girl said why don't they just put him in a slower group.
So jot this down now if you don't have time for your kids you might consider joining a slower group, remember when i said some things i went for cost me too much so reconsider…..
Next key to time management and that's work longer and harder but see there's a limit to that i almost lost my health the first year i went so crazy about personal development and achievement i just went bonkers, you know i told you i was skinny by the end of that first year i was a walking shadow and then it suddenly occurred to me what if i got rich and too ill to spend it.
i mean that was a shocker so i started developing a little more reasonable because i said if 12 hours won't do it i'll work 14 if that won't do it i'll work 18 i mean how many hours it takes, and sure enough it cost me too much so see working longer and harder for some might be appropriate, you know if you're just sitting around not doing that much this might be good work longer and harder… but you can only work so hard here's the key not to work harder but smarter, when you've worked as hard as you can doing the best you can in terms of physical output in the time reasonable time.
Now here's the ultimate in the management of time and that is you simply become more skilful, when i first got into sales you know i was around people that could get you know nine out of ten eight out of ten and when i first started i could only get one out of ten, but here's what i did i worked around the clock around the clock so that i would make up in numbers what i lacked in skill that's good in sales you got to jot that down when you're new you make up in numbers which you lack in skill.
Now when you become more skillful the numbers can go down because now your persuasive ability and all of that is now so high that you don't need to put as many numbers out, but at first if you want to compete or if you want to really get good you got to put in the numbers but if you get more from yourself develop more of yourself now the time management becomes an easier task.
Now here's the next thing either you run the project or it runs you i found out when you start something at first you're in charge all of a sudden a year later it's in charge, some of the companies i started i'm telling you i'm in control a couple of years later i'm out of control.
at first i've got it on the run two years later it's got me on the run haven't got enough time i'm dizzy with trying to get it all done, so here's part of the key and that's to get in charge, teach you to start something first thing you know you're out of control it's in control the enterprise you get started now runs you ragged. because i did that when i had the whole 13 offices and the big entourage i'm telling you it was like short nights and long days and just sort of the never ceasing demand for time and activity which was fine.
at that time in my life it was fine and created a lot of good results and laid some good foundation for a lot of future careers that came from those unique times, there's a pretty long list of people who were inspired by it and educated by it and participated in that program i had going…. and i re-changed the format to sort of rearrange my own life personally which has paid off for me now i have a heavy workload but if you finally get to the place where you have most everything done for you.
i still farm in idaho but i'm what's known as a gentleman farmer a gentleman farmer gives orders and other people do the work, it's different than being a farmer doing the work yourself i know that because i was raised in the farm country where i still have my farm but now i have the luxury of participants who look after my agriculture, look after my home building, my daughter looks after all of my accounts, and my residences and my real estate and i have good partners in business that's extra luxury….
Where you can do your specialty and other people working make it valuable, here's what i discovered that happens to you in life that you will go through things and while you're going through them you can't understand why it's happening to you, but after you go through it you get back and you look at it and you say oh now i understand why i needed that lesson…..
Vave you ever happened to you raise your hand it ever happened to you that that i did i couldn't understand it there, but after i got through it then i saw that that was preparing me for bigger and better things, that as you go through the challenges of life and you look at it and embrace whatever comes to you don't run from it, step toward it don't try and duck it like most people do see most people want it easy.
see easy come easy what easy go see but when you go at what you're going to deal with and you deal with the difficult difficulties of it, when you handle those hard things close at hand making those hard decisions right now. That you don't want to make ? learning those things that you don't like to do but you know that in order for you to get where you want to go this is one of the hoops that you have to flip through. and i'm saying to you whatever you got to do, do it because if you don't life is going to whoop you until you surrender.
and say okay all right all right all right all right……….. i cooperate okay i learned okay they had to wear me out a long time, so if it's hard then do it hard.
i want you to live the life you were meant to live you hear me not the life that was given to you i'm a high school dropout because that's the life my daddy gave me but i've been married almost 28 years and two kids by the same woman which is not my experience i got brothers and sisters none of us had the same parents…
Because i made up in my mind that's the life y'all gave me, i'm not that i'm not taking that no more, i still want i don't want to be on crack, i've never drank i never smoked and i'm not against it i just didn't do it because my family was doing it and they wasn't winning doing it….
Uncle died of cirrhosis of the liver i'm like bro i'm not going out like that uncle's in prison i'm not going i wasn't meant to be in prison i got married at 19 y'all i was meant to live with a woman i'm not i'm not just being real bro i ain't mad at you bro, i'm just being real it's some dudes they like i'm hardcore i'm not hard i'm not hard bro i promise you i'm not hard i want to be with no dudes all day every day.
i'm gonna need a break i'm gonna need a break from that i'm just being real i'm gonna need a break for me and my man in the same bunk and i ain't got no privacy i'm gonna need a break from that i'm just being real i'm gonna need a break from prison food i'm gonna need my grandma cooking at some point i'm just being real just be honest when you walk out of here some of you are not transitioning.
Because you're okay with the life you have and i'm telling you, i when i walk out i want to be an example of you can start from wherever and get to wherever you want to get to….. that's what i'm asking you to do what fuels you the reason why you're so lazy is not because you don't have the ability you're so lazy because your dreams so small……..
Freshman year in college uh me and my boys start like this like christian like organization get that goal get that dream and i'm just been telling you drive it and drive it and drive it and drive it what i've been talking about is consistency, you must come up with a morning routine……!!!!!
that you do every single morning or at least more mornings than not that puts you in control of yourself and in control of your day, this is what i do and i cannot explain the power that i get… from starting my day off and being bigger than my excuses and being in control first and foremost wake up on time when that alarm goes off get your butt out of bed five four three two one go…..
Why is that important for persistence the reason why is because the first decision that you're making of the day is to actually get up and get moving….!!!!
That means you are persistently bigger than your excuses you are persistently bigger than feeling lazy and you are persistently beating the feelings that typically stop you, the second thing that i want you to do before you look at your email, before you answer your phone, before you start surfing vox and vice and buzzfeed and you know team stream and checking out the sales on zappos and looking at your facebook news feed, before you pick up the damn phone.
Please….!!!! Please….!!! Please…..!!! figure out your two priorities for the day…. these are the things that matter to you whether it's saving money and and making sure you're focused on that or showing up at work and being a contributor or whether it's changing how you treat your spouse or your kids or the person that you're with or heck getting to the gym because you said you would
Whatever it is that your two priorities are put them in your head before you pick up the phone why the reason why is because of persistence the reason why…??? is because i want you to have a good day do you know what makes for a bad day what makes for a bad day is snoozing, starting your day off late, starting your day off tired, starting your day off by mainlining everybody else's news feed on social media and looking at everybody else's life and and saying to yourself oh my god…
They're on vacation or gosh they look so great or their friends are so fancy or my gosh they've got some money you start off your day looking at that you're never gonna have a good day you gotta start off your day by getting up on time figuring out your priorities and then getting to work on them, do not pick up your phone until you have done those two things i think the single biggest reason why people have bad days.
is because they start them off by looking around at everybody else and seeing what they're doing instead of having the focus and the discipline…..
to actually start your day off with you in control and with your priorities front and center, so you want a bonus round exercise every day that's right get up on time figure out your priorities and exercise…….
You do those three things you'll be kicking ass every single day…….
Part of the work that i love to do now is is really help people understand what is your story, like what's the story you're telling so because we all have a story we have a money story a relationship story a health story we have a story for everything and then that story keeps recreating our lives over and over and over again……
and we have beliefs that support the story we have habits that support the story we have people that support the story we have systems that support our story, and so my question i always ask people who would you be with a different story..?
so for the next 90 days your first 90 minutes at work, make it focused on your single most important project……!!!
i'll repeat that again for the next 90 days the first 90 minutes of your work day focus monomaniacally on your single most valuable project….
i call it your game-changing move so it might be, it might be creating a new piece of code that will revolutionize the marketplace, it might be a new product that when you launch it will fill a need within your industry that no peer is currently providing, i don't know what your game-changing move is but this is your poetry this is your magnum opus for the next 90 days…..
So what most people do is you know people who are playing at victimhood people who are in the 95 percent people who are making excuses about ordinary results in their life a lot of them are not doing the things that would give them legendary results,……. and what they do is they get to the office.
Rather than using prime time for a activities they use their best hours watching dancing cats on whatever it is, whatever the video platform is, they spend their best hours surfing the internet looking at blogs…..
They spend their best hours playing with notifications reading notifications chatting with friends who are not really their friends but really they're just bored so they're distracting themselves which is just a form of medication because potential onyx unexpressed turns to pain and they're in a lot of pain and it's subconscious and they haven't done the work to know it so really
They've created these drugs of choice like too much email too much web surfing too much chit chatting too much looking at funny looking videos that make them laugh in the moment that make them feel happy and give them a short burst of dopamine and maybe a little bit of serotonin which is the pleasure neurotransmitter and that's how they get through their day.
all i'm saying is there is so much distraction available to you out there that if you are not acutely careful it will dominate your days, what i'm really trying to say is this a ritual for you to run and dial in and hardwire to the point of automaticity that's the word the researchers use when a habit becomes your new normal.
Over 66 days is the 1991 rule and to give it to you again so you really remember it for the next 90 days your first 90 minutes create a tight bubble of total focus so that no one can distract you turn off your devices put them in a little plastic bag put some reminders on your door maybe some post-it notes that this is my tight bubble of total focus for the next 90 minutes. Tell your team tell your loved ones maybe get a put a do not disturb sign on your door……..
They'll laugh and explain it to them that for the next 90 days i will spend 90 minutes away from distraction, away from technology, away from interruptions….
Focusing on my magnum opus focusing on the genius project that i want to bring into the world because i will never mail it in i will always bring it on and i'm going to do this for the next 90 minutes.
and i'm going to optimize it and iterate it every day and i'm going to bring my full bandwidth because what makes a genius they all have one trait in common they were able to spend extended periods of time in isolation focused monomonically on their most valuable project.
Some people spend their entire lives wondering how to be successful in out life you be surprised to find out, that the secret really comes down to four key areas well it does…..
See personal success is achievable for anyone who practices the four areas or keys to success everyone wants personal success and to learn the keys to success everyone wants to have a happy.
Healthy life do meaningful work enjoy a career and achieve financial independence everyone wants to make a difference in the world to be significant to have a positive impact on those around him or….
Her everyone wants to do something wonderful with his or her life over and over i have found that the keys to success are a single piece of information a single idea at the right time that can change your life in the right situation i have also learned that the great truths are simple